New polling suggests the next federal government will almost certainly be a minority government. It also now seems likely that the LNP will substantially outperform Labor in the number of seats it wins, with a roughly one-in-five chance of a majority LNP government.
The polling was conducted by Accent Research and Redbridge Group, organisations which could never be accused of skewing in favour of the LNP. Their polling reached around 5,000 people and then extrapolated these findings to electorates across the country based on demographic profiles.
“We estimate there is a 98 per cent chance of a minority government, and slightly less than a two per cent chance of a Coalition majority,” Dr Shaun Ratcliff of Accent told media.
The big finding is that Labor is set to lose several outer-suburban electorates at the next federal election, which must be held by mid-May 2025.
The pollsters tip one outer suburban seat in Melbourne being lost by Labor and a further five currently being too close to call.
In New South Wales, the forecast is even better for the Liberals. In the Hunter region, the South and Central Coast, and Sydney’s north-west and south-west, Labor is certain to be losing seats. Much of Sydney’s centre and west remains too close to call.
The rough result for Albanese comes on the back of similar findings in Redbridge’s September survey. In that poll, 58% of voters said they could not think of a single thing the government has done for them since coming into office in 2022.
This polling should be understood in the context of rising interest rates and inflation in basics like groceries and electricity. GDP per capita is currently falling; that is, the size of economy as a whole is only being maintained by adding more people via immigration.
Despite the surge in support from Dutton from the suburbs and regions, whether that actually means a Dutton-led government will be a matter for the days and weeks after the election.
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