Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries are leading the global surge in electricity demand. That’s according to a new report published by the International Energy Agency last month.
Since the year 2000, global energy demand has grown by approximately 52%. Yet in the MENA region, electricity demand has grown by about 130%. During the same period, the region’s population has grown by around 57%.
The energy intensity of MENA countries – that is, electricity consumption relative to GDP – has increased by 6% during this period. The global average is in fact a 27% decrease in energy intensity since the year 2000.
Behind India and China, MENA is the region whose electricity demand rose the most over the past 25 years. On current trends, the region’s consumption will grow by a further 50% in the coming decade.
Air-conditioning accounts for a quarter of MENA countries’ annual power consumption. Desalination is another major driver.
This is a problem for the rest of the world because MENA’s energy consumption is the world’s most carbon intensive. Over 70% of MENA’s electricity is generated from burning gas and a further 20% from oil. Coal adds a further 5%.
The carbon intensity of MENA countries’ economies is almost double Australia’s and more than three times higher than the EU’s. MENA is likely to surpass the EU in total annual carbon emissions by 2035 (this is not including its fossil fuel exports).
Inexplicably given their geography and the need to respond to global warming, the MENA countries have scarcely moved on solar energy. The IEA does at least expect this to rise from near zero at present to 18% of the total energy mix over the next ten years.
The carbon intensity of MENA economies should give pause to climate optimism driven by reduction in carbon intensity of economies in Europe, East Asia and North America. Climate resilience efforts are going to need to be a crucial part of public policy in Australia in the coming years.
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