The US pivot to Asia in the 2010s seemed to confirm East Asia and the Pacific as America’s primary strategic focus. Yet the US is now tied to intractable conflicts in its two other main areas of off-shore interest: Europe and the Middle East.
This scenario has the US struggling to project power on three fronts. It has pulled missiles from Japan and a marine brigade from Korea to continue threatening Iran.
Moreover, a Friday NBC report cited congressional aides that “billions” of dollars in damage has been done to US Middle East bases. This matches an A Rich Life report two weeks ago.
The Pentagon’s Under Secretary of War for Policy spelled out the new reality at a speech in Europe. “We must be clear-eyed about the gravity of the current moment: Europe must accelerate its assumption of primary responsibility for the conventional defense of the continent. This is not a matter of choice, but of strategic necessity.”
“The defense of Ukraine has been sustained largely by drawing down finite U.S. stockpiles […] Developing a robust, capable, and integrated European defense industrial base cannot simply be an aspiration, but an absolute pre-requisite for credible deterrence and defense.”
The full speech has been interpreted as a “divorce” from responsibility for Europe’s conventional defence.
So what about Australia? The conversation has been remarkably absent even since the Iran bombing.
The AUKUS alliance is entirely premised on the unity of Australian military forces with US forces and their objectives. Yet recent polling showed that just 36% of Australians trust the United States to behave responsibly. Confidence in the current US president is even lower.
The US pivot to Asia points to confrontation between US and China over Taiwan. Total commitment in such a conflict is the baseline US expectation of Australia in the alliance.
The Albanese government has been unwilling to make such a public commitment. This is understandable, given the deranged behaviour of President Trump.
At the same time, after abandoning the French defence partnership, Australia is now completely dependent on the US defence industry, which is struggling with the demands of the global situation, for its procurement. The AUKUS deals are premised on the US having enough submarines for itself first, but China is now building submarines faster than the US.
This means that at this key strategic moment, Australia seems to have no option but to proceed on the same course. All of which goes to show what a blunder it was for Scott Morrison to abandon the French agreement in the first place.
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