ALP Support Firms in Final Quarter ’22

Support for the Albanese-led federal government strengthened notably in the three months from October 2022. That’s according to comprehensive polling recently released by Resolve polling.

The poll found that nation-wide, the ALP primary vote has reached the magical 40% figure. That’s up from 32% at the election. The polling suggests the LNP vote has fallen from 36% at the election to 31% by December.

When the Greens’ 12% support and a large portion of the 8% vote for independents is added in, the ALP now clearly leads a strong progressive coalition. This is reflected in the preferred prime minister result, in which Albanese at 53% support leads Dutton on 19%, with the remainder undecided.

Now a well-established trend, support for Dutton is just 14% among those aged 18-34 years old. His support is strongest at 26% among those aged 55 and over.

The firming approval of the federal government suggests cautious support for Labor’s policy initiatives, particularly greater funding for childcare, parental leave and aged care announced in the October budget. At the same time, the waning support for the LNP most likely reflects the Scott Morrison-centred scandals – the secret ministries and the Robodebt Royal Commission – are eroding backing for the LNP.

Polling suggests that South Australia is now Australia’s most staunchly Labor state. Some 46% of South Australians back the party, with a further 14% of the state voting for the Greens and 8% supporting independents.

Queensland remains the most right-wing state in the country, with 40% backing the LNP. A further 7% of the state backs One Nation.

The main shortcoming of this Resolve poll is that it failed to include Tasmania. As Labor’s 2022 election review highlighted, the party’s primary vote has now fallen in the state in two consecutive federal elections, with a 6% reduction in their vote in 2022.

Data from the ALP’s 2022 federal election review.

And of course, while an Albanese re-election is now paying just $1.20 in the betting markets, 2025 is a long way away in politics.

Follow Christian on Twitter for more news updates.

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