The Lowy Institute’s latest Asia Power Index is out, and the results are positive for Australian influence in the region. The US and China remain Asia’s biggest powers, though neither has escaped the pandemic unharmed. Southeast Asian countries did well to demonstrate their growth as dynamic regional players, while Japan and India are flagging.
The Lowy Institute is an independent Sydney-based think tank, founded in 2003. It looks at the shifting international landscape, conducting research and analysis on economic, political and strategic dynamics.
The Asia Power Index – API – is a comprehensive analysis of 26 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, that has been conducted since 2018. It ranks these countries by calculating scores in categories covering military and economic capability, diplomatic and cultural influence, future resources and more.
Australia’s Diplomatic Influence Growing
Australia’s performance in the latest API was very positive, coming in sixth in overall rankings. Of the top ten countries, Australia was the only nation to emerge relatively unscathed from the pandemic.
“Australia is the only significant country in the region to have a score which is comparable to what it was before the pandemic,” summed up Susannah Patton, the project leader for the API.
Our best performance was in Defence Networks, where we placed second. But our greatest improvement was in Diplomatic Influence, with our rank rising to fifth place.
This jump in regional diplomacy has been attributed by the Institute as reflecting “greater confidence by experts surveyed in the ability of the new Albanese Labor government to advance Australia’s interests, as compared to the previous Morrison Coalition government.”
How did Other Countries Fare?
The US has claimed first place in the overall ranking since the API’s advent, though China has been rising steadily to compete for the top spot.
America continued to lead this year in six of the eight category groups. Only in Economic Relationships and Diplomatic Influence does it come in second to China. Shifting attitudes towards Biden in the region, combined with Chinese diplomatic efforts, allowed Beijing to clinch the top spot in the latter category.
However, Xi Jinping’s harsh COVID-zero policies slowed China’s overall ascent. Although China was second in 2022 again, it also registered “the largest decline in comprehensive power” in the index.
Japan came in third in the overall rankings – long lauded by the Lowy Institute as a “smart power”.
The Lowy Institute also calculates what they call a ‘Power Gap’ – essentially a measure of how influential a country is relative to their resources. Countries that enjoy oversized influence comparative to their resources demonstrate strong positive power gaps.
Japan has the largest positive power gap by far, and has had for a long time. Australia has the second largest positive power gap of the API’s 26 nations. Still, Japan looks set to struggle with maintaining this status, as it battles a stagnating GDP and rapidly ageing population.
India, in fourth place, has a positive demographic outlook and enjoys strong diplomatic influence. However, their refusal to engage deeply in regional networks – economic and political – limits their impact to their immediate neighbourhood. India was conspicuously absent from the vital RCEP agreement in January last year.
Southeast Asian countries saw some very strong results. Increased participation in ASEAN activities by Cambodia, Brunei and Laos gave them the greatest gains – Cambodia chaired ASEAN last year, after Brunei in 2021.
Russia remains in fifth place, but has seen an unsurprising fall in their scores on many rankings. The Kremlin’s influence in the region is expected to continue to decline as a result of the war in Ukraine and its global consequences.
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