Behind the Spike in Pedestrian Fatalities

This past week brought news of a spike in the rate of pedestrian fatalities on Australia’s roads. In the 12 months to 31 July, 204 pedestrians were killed on Australian roads. This was 44 more people than in the prior 12 months.

There were 1,340 people killed on Australian roads in the 12-month period overall. This total road “toll” (i.e. including motorists) was 2.3% higher than the year prior, whereas the number of pedestrian fatalities rose by 27%. Since 2021, there has been a nearly 50% increase in annual pedestrian fatalities.

What is behind the rise in pedestrian fatalities on Australian roads?

Some pundits initially blamed the increasingly popular e-scooters. But there was actually a simpler explanation to hand.

As you can see above, there is an upward trend line of SUV sales in Australia dating back 30 years now. A quite staggering 56% of new vehicles sold in Australia in 2024 were SUVs.

And SUVs are indeed much more likely to cause fatalities when involved in crashes.

Adult pedestrians hit by an SUV are 14% more likely to die than if they were hit by a car. However, minors are 77% more likely to die when hit by an SUV. Children below the age of 10 years old are more than three times as likely to die if hit by an SUV relative to being hit by a car. SUVs also of course cause much more serious injuries.

A report by The Australia Institute found the federal government foregoes $250m in annual revenue because of tax exemptions for SUVs. Luxury-car tax (paid on vehicles costing $81,000 or more) is waived for utes that meet a cargo requirement, even if they are purchased for non-commercial use.

Unfortunately, the unceasing popularity of SUVs creates an arms race dynamic on the roads. SUV drivers often choose SUVs for reasons of their own safety, and other drivers feel less safe on roads surrounded by SUVs.

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