A YouGov poll released on Sunday has the Liberal-National Coalition winning 73 seats at the 2025 federal election. This is just three short of the 76 seats needed to form government.
The narrow gap from 73 to 76 raises questions about what, if any, cross-bench support Peter Dutton might have in post-election negotiations. An LNP-ALP result of 73 to 66 would be a clear rebuke to Albanese, yet Albanese may still remain the only viable option for prime minister.
Who will the Cross-Bench Back in 2025?
If Dutton is searching about for cross-bench backers post-election, his first call will be to Bob Katter. The Far North Queenslander backed Tony Abbott over Julia Gillard during the minority government of 2010 and would surely give Dutton the nod in 2025.
On the other side, the Greens are a lock for Albanese. It’s not obvious how many seats in the lower house the Greens will have in the next parliament. Tasmania’s Andrew Wilkie, a one-time Greens candidate, is also in the never-LNP bloc.
Another independent is Fairfield’s Dai Le. However, she is tipped to lose her seat to Labor this time around.
That leaves Rebekha Sharkie – the unassuming member for the Adelaide suburban seat of Mayo – in the spotlight. Sharkie’s nondescript policies make her alignment anyone’s guess. But with Sharkie and Katter, Dutton’s support could reach 75 seats and make an Albanese re-election impossible.
Sharkie previously signalled she thinks her electorate would expect her to work with Dutton. While the Coalition is more popular than Labor in Mayo, it’s an odd interpretation of her potential loyalties given she can’t be elected without Labor voters’ preferences.
Altogether though, a scenario with an apparent LNP mandate but no LNP majority will reveal the most about the Teals. It’s difficult to envision a movement specifically about countering the LNP and taking climate action then turning around and backing an LNP candidate who has been pandering to the mining industry.
On the other hand, the Teal candidates represent markedly wealthier constituencies than the national average. Kate Chaney and Allegra Spender have both kept themselves open to increasing the GST, for instance. Zali Steggall and Zoe Daniel criticised Labor’s tax on super funds over $3m as “class war”.
Yet it’s only an apparent contradiction for the reps of such constituencies to back Albanese. Labor is already more strongly backed by six-figure income earners; the LNP has become the party of wealth and the poor. So the Teal bloc seem very unlikely to become friends of Dutton.
In sum, a 73-seat Coalition “victory” would be a nightmare scenario for political stability, with Albanese discredited but Dutton likely too far from 76 to form government.
Thumbnail image courtesy of @gerdadesign via Unsplash.
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