Fears of a coal rebound in Europe due to the invasion of Ukraine have proven unfounded. That’s according to recent analysis of 2022 power generation in the EU conducted by the think-tank Ember.
In the final event, coal power generation increased by 1.5% in 2022. That took it to a 16% share of total generation.
Coal generation increased for the first eight months of 2022, before falling for the final four months in a row. “Despite importing 22 million tonnes of extra coal in 2022,” said Ember, “the EU only used a third of this and a surplus two-thirds remained unused.”
This was partly due to warmer than expected temperatures over winter. Demand reduction and rapid solar roll-out were additional factors.
With the fall in gas imports, Ember estimates EU power generation from fossil fuels will fall by a further 20% in 2023.
Meanwhile, wind and solar’s share of the EU energy mix overtook gas for the first time in 2022. Wind and solar amounted to 22% of total generation, surpassing gas with 16%.
The charge was led by solar power, with 39 TWh of generation added across 2022 (by comparison, Australia’s total solar power generation in 2022 was 30.8 TWh). This saved €10 billion of gas that would have to have been bought and burned to generate the same power.
The EU case is indicative of ongoing global declines in demand for coal. Generation from the expensive and polluting fossil fuel was at 20-year lows in Australia in December 2022.
“Europe has avoided the worst of the energy crisis,” said Dave Jones, Ember’s head of data insights. “The shocks of 2022 only caused a minor ripple in coal power and a huge wave of support for renewables. Any fears of a coal rebound are now dead.”
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