Like many Morrison-era announcements, the AUKUS deal arrived in September 2021 with little detail. Now, following a euphemistic 18-month “planning period,” we finally have an idea of where AUKUS is headed.
Its key provision is a promise to deliver Australia three nuclear-powered submarines by 2032. This is accompanied by measures to ensure Australian crews are sufficiently trained to operate and maintain them; navy personnel will begin embedding with US and UK counterparts this year.
There are upgrades to Australia’s east and west coast ports to allow for US and UK nuclear submarine “rotation” in the Indian and West Pacific Oceans. Rotations are mooted to commence from Perth in 2027. The east coast base may be at Port Kembla, NSW.
The third key provision is to complete the design of a nuclear submarine that can be manufactured in Australia by the 2040s.
It’s a monumental deal for Australia. As an island nation, submarines are arguably the key defensive capability. Albanese called it “the biggest single investment in defence capability in all of our history.”
The US and UK, meanwhile, get new access to ports and an export market for their naval industry. So what was the sticking point?
In January, a letter from two senators on the Armed Services Committee to President Biden was leaked to Breaking Defence. “We are concerned that what was initially touted as a ‘do no harm’ opportunity to support Australia and the United Kingdom…may be turning into a zero-sum game for scarce, highly-advanced US [subs],” said the senators.
“AUKUS options that would have the U.S. transfer or sell Virginia-class submarines prior to meeting requirements would make the US Navy less capable of meeting sovereign wartime and peacetime requirements. Make no mistake, we recognize the strategic value of having one of our closest allies operating a world-class nuclear navy.
“However, such a goal will take decades to achieve, and we cannot simply ignore contemporary realities in the meantime.”
So how was this concern overcome? By direct Australian bankrolling of expansions to submarine industry in the US and UK. The deal requires Australia to commit a “proportionate amount” to US industry, tipped by pundits to amount to $3 billion over the next four years.
An undisclosed amount will also be spent in the UK. “Australia has committed to a proportionate financial investment in the United Kingdom submarine industrial base to accelerate production of SSN-AUKUS,” said the White House.
In sum, the capacity-building aspects of AUKUS will be a long-term game-changer for Australia’s defence if seen through. If, on the other hand, the project is aborted due to the fickleness of our partisan politics, it will be just one very expensive purchase.
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