The Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness, based out of Harvard Medical School, ran a forum last week answering questions about how the current strain of bird flu in the US (H5N1) is spreading and evolving. Responses from the experts expressed a pattern of increasing though not yet major concern.
Robert Goldstein, Massachusetts Public Health Commissioner, was asked how worried he is about an H5N1 pandemic on a scale of 1 to 10. “We worry all the time, but I think we’re in the four to five range right now,” replied Goldstein. “I do think we need to have a healthy worry about H5N1, but the risk to humans at this moment remains low.”
A similar response came from Jonathan Runstadler, Chair of Infectious Diseases at Tufts University. “I’m probably at a six, but I’ve come up from a two or three in a fairly short time period,” said Runstadler. “I’m also at a nine or ten for an influenza virus becoming a pandemic at some point in the future.”
As we reported last year, the H5N1 bird-flu strain has been circulating in the US since 2022 (note: this is distinct from the H7 strain that forced chicken culling at farms in Victoria last year). Historically, bird flu strains been deadly to humans, with a fatality rate thus far of about 50%.
According to the Harvard forum, however, it appears the currently predominant strain of the H5N1 virus is shifting to a less deadly form. There have now been 70 documented cases in humans since 2022, and hospitalisation has been very rare. Most patients in fact develop conjunctivitis.
Jeremy Luban, a molecular biochemist at University of Massachusetts, said that bird flu transmission has been confirmed from one unfortunate person to their pet cat. This suggests that humans can transmit the virus, even though no human-to-human transmission has yet occurred.
A major concern expressed by the forum experts was the Trump administration cuts to science funding, which they say imperils their ability to surveil the virus. It wasn’t clear to me how self-serving that commentary was.
Republicans have proposed increasing the tax on Ivy League endowments, which are currently taxed at 1.4% of their investment income, to up to 35%. Harvard’s endowment is reported to be over USD $50 billion.
The H5N1 virus remains an agricultural concern. As well as commercial chickens, bird flu has spread into dairy cattle populations.
Even seals and sea lions have been infected. Argentina has reported cases from Buenos Aires south to Tierra del Fuego and all the way to Antarctica.
Last October, the Australian government dedicated $22m to increasing our stockpiles of the H5N1 vaccine. It’s not known how well these will work with the newer strains of the virus.
Sign Up To Our Free Newsletter