It was headline news earlier this month when the Liberal-National Coalition dumped their commitment to net zero. The move was the result of a compromise deal between Liberal and National MPs trying to keep the Coalition together.
Yet at what cost? We are now seeing some of the first polling since the net zero move.
The primary vote of the Coalition now sits at 24% nation-wide, based on the latest RedBridge polling. That’s been described by pollster Kos Samaras as reflecting probably the lowest levels of support for the liberal and conservative side of politics since Australian federation.
Once the National Party support is subtracted, the Liberal Party itself commands just 20% of the primary vote.
Strikingly, their primary vote support among Gen Z – considered for these polls as those aged 18 to 28 years old – is just 10%. Gen Z is the demographic most moved by climate change.
Sussan Ley’s pitch on abandoning net zero was that climate change matters, but bringing down the cost of electricity should come first. Will it resonate with voters?
“When you speak to Australians about what’s causing the power prices, the first place they’ll go to is electricity companies gouging them as consumers,” Samaras told the ABC in the wake of the announcement. “The second place they’ll go to is unreliable energy sources. And the third, for a very large chunk of Australians, particularly younger Australians, the reason why it’s expensive now is because the [net zero] transition is taking too long.”
That second factor – reflecting the belief that relying on wind and sun causes high peak power prices – works for the Coalition. Yet just as with Coalition plans to reduce immigration, the voters who support these moves are likely already voting conservative.
Yes, there is real skepticism about renewable energy in the electorate. There’s also very real opposition to mass migration, which has reached 1.52 million arrivals since 1 January 2022.
This is reflected in One Nation reaching its highest ever polling results. One Nation is now the first preference of 18% of Australian voters. Yet if the Liberals want to govern, they need to avoid trying to beat One Nation at its own game.
The Liberals’ low primary vote is overshadowing the ALP’s own historically low primary vote. But Albanese has mastered the art of occupying the centre, owning preference flows by being the one who upsets the fewest people. Ley needs to try her hand at displacing him from the centre.
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