Millennials and Gen Z are Sinking the LNP

With Dan Andrews re-elected as Premier, it’s been underlined for us yet again: Victoria votes Labor. Yet not every aspect of the vote this past weekend went according to received wisdom.

The “referendum on Dan Andrews” backfired

Given the enmity he has faced due to his unabashed support for COVID lock-downs, it seemed fair to make “an Andrews’ re-election” the centrepiece of the opposition campaign. As it happened, though, Andrews’ status as preferred premier was the strongest element of the ALP campaign.

Polling before the election had Andrews backed as preferred premier by 48% of voting age Victorians. The Labor primary vote itself ended up at just 37%, with a further 10% voting Green. So Andrews was certainly no liability for the ALP.

Work-from-homers swung to ALP

The Melbourne suburbs with the highest proportion of people working from home saw the strongest swings to the ALP. This included inner-city Melbourne and the inner east as well as Geelong. Conversely, the LNP’s strongest results were in the outer suburbs to Melbourne’s north and west, where working from home is lowest.

Far-right talking points fail to benefit LNP

The LNP’s flirtation with the far right continued in the campaign. The party’s advertising courted anti-vaxxers. They even called into question the Victorian Electoral Commission’s integrity after it investigated Liberal staffer, Mitch Catlin, for allegedly subverting rules on political donations.

Yet this failed to materialise in an increased LNP vote, which remained almost identical to the 2018 election. Young right-wingers who might be attracted to these campaigns have not been enough to replace the ageing conservative vote.

Millennials and Gen Z are sinking the LNP

This trend from the federal election continued in Victorian over the weekend. Among over 55s, the two-party preferred vote is 56% in favour of the LNP. Among those 35 years old and under, two-party preferred support for Labor is 67.5%. 

For reference, Gen Z voters are 18-25 and Millennials are 26-41.

Housing costs are becoming untenable

And this helps explain the generational difference in voting. While 71% of Victorians told pollsters cost-of-living pressure is affecting their wellbeing, that rose to 84% of 18 to 39 year-olds. Of those who do not own property, just 42% believe they will be able to one day. Just a third believe younger generations of Victorians’ will have a better standard of living than their predecessors.

Follow Christian on Twitter for more news updates.

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