Result Neck-and-Neck in Ideologically Divided Tasmanian Parliament

At the federal election in May, 36.6% of Tasmanian voters backed the ALP and Anthony Albanese’s leadership. Yet at the state election this weekend, Labor’s primary vote is just 25.7% in counting thus far.

Tasmania’s next government will come down to the wire when the numbers between left and right candidates are stacked up. The final result will also depend on an extended period of negotiations about the agenda of a potential minority government.

Tasmania’s lower-house seats are determined by what is known as the Hare-Clark system. The state is divided into five regions and each region has seven members of parliament.

The state’s electoral system is thus partly proportional. It functions somewhat like the federal Senate.

Although Labor is receiving just a quarter of votes, its consistency across the state means the party will pick up two members for each of the five regions.

In addition, the Greens are expected to win 5-6 seats. The party is close to having two members elected from Clark, which takes in Hobart.

There also look to be several Independent candidates elected, including Peter George, elected from Franklin in the south of the state. George is a former ABC journalist and campaigner against Tasmania’s extremely large salmon farms. Another Independent is Craig Garland, a former fisherman and another campaigner against salmon interests Tassal, Huon and Petuna.

*Garland: “Not against wind farms just against them in the wrong place!”*

On the other side, the Liberals – who are currently in government – are expected to have 14 members in the new parliament. This included four from Braddon, a mostly rural electorate which covers Tasmania’s west coast and the western half of the north coast.

Two further seats are likely to go either to the Liberals or the Shooters, Farmers and Fishers’ Party. That would leave the right-wing with just shy of a possible majority in the 35-seat parliament.

Prospective premier David O’Byrne and the rest of the ALP leadership will have some serious negotiating ahead of themselves if they are to pull together all the Independent interests in the parliament.