Political preference is increasingly downstream of identity and self-image, rather than just economic interests. Political theorists refer to this as the “post-material turn”.
This goes beyond common political quirks, like being anti-immigration correlating with being anti-wind power. It means preference on any issue – any – is correlated with preference on all sorts of other issues. This holds even for things seemingly unrelated to one another.
Case in point: do you prefer Ronaldo or Messi? The Portuguese striker playing in an unprecedented sixth World Cup? Or the Argentinian captain and winner of eight Ballons d’Or?
Ronaldo, apparently, is perceived as being more exuberant, self-promotional and explicit about personal excellence. Messi is perceived as being socially anxious, deferential and team-first.
So this seemingly irrelevant choice between the two says more than you think. Researchers dived into its implications with a survey across 26 countries including over 10,000 respondents.
The most significant factor in predicting whether you prefer Ronaldo or Messi is political ideology. Liberalism is the most closely correlated variable, and it is associated with Messi.
For Ronaldo, on the other hand, the major predictor is self-esteem, closely followed by favourable views of authoritarianism.
This plays out in country-level preference too. Ronaldo is clearly more popular than Messi in Mexico, Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia, China, France, India and Nigeria. Whereas Messi was most popular in South Korea, Finland, Norway, Spain and the UK.
What’s striking about the apparent liberal-conservative divide is that scarcely any other factor had an effect. Age, education, social class, news media consumption, and empathy levels all had no relation to Messi-Ronaldo preference.
Situating the survey results in relation to other recent studies, the authors wrote that “political identity now organizes preferences far removed from politics, such as consumer choices, romantic partners, occupational evaluations, and aesthetic tastes.”
There is a clue that this might all come down to social media, personal branding, and its perennial question, “What kind of person are you?” Because once one reaches 10+ years from a country’s average age, all the above trend lines fade to insignificance.
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