The campaign is worsening for Peter Dutton and the Liberal-National Coalition. Labor moved to a 53% to 47% two-party-preferred lead as of 30 April, according to Redbridge and Accent Research.
Five months ago, the Coalition led on a two-party-preferred basis at 51-49. Just one month ago, Labor’s lead was slimmer at 51-49.
Primary votes now stand at 44% to Labor, 35% to the LNP, then 11% to the Greens and 8% to One Nation. So a returned Labor majority government is on the cards. In fact, it is now the most favoured outcome according to Sportsbet.
The Coalition vote count also camouflages a strong lead in Queensland, which is excessive from the point of view of the LNP. Dutton’s leadership has arguably strengthened LNP support in its strongholds and weakened its support in the areas where they needed it most.
Reflecting this, the Coalition vote has been described as more “locked in”: their voters are more sure of who they are going to vote for. Albanese’s support is described as “softer”.
This is because Dutton has campaigned strongly on issues that are popular with Coalition voters: cheap fuel, immigration, nuclear power, positivity towards Trump.
“So everything they’ve done has been about reducing their electoral coalition down to their core base,” said Kos Samaras on Wednesday. “Instead of expanding their pie, they’ve been actually in the business of cutting it down.”
Globally, a class realignment has been taking place where right-of-centre parties receive more working-class votes. Dutton bet on such a realignment by campaigning hard in the outer suburbs. However, the phenomenon is so far not on show in Australia.
The Greens are still performing tremendously well among Gen-Z voters. This reflects cultural issues important to the younger generation, but also the Greens campaign on renters’ rights. Labor is doing well among the relatively less wealthy through its Medicare campaign.
By contrast, owners of property and other assets remain much more likely to vote LNP, but that support is dependent on them also backing LNP cultural politics.
Elections are meant to be about wedge issues. This time Dutton has wedged himself.
In my opinion, the Liberal Party that can win government is a Liberal Party that can win the seats of Turnbull, Abbott, Howard and Menzies. That may be the Liberal Party that we get after this election.
Sign Up To Our Free Newsletter