The Steady March Of Covid-19; Not All Curves Flattening

What we are witnessing at the moment is a large number of jurisdictions where the level of Covid infections is such that many people are able to disbelieve it is a problem.

In places like Australia, where social distancing has come close to eliminating the virus, there is good reason to believe we can loosen social distancing protocols without causing a second wave. However, if I were a betting man (I am, ha) I would bet that we do see a second wave in Australia, though this may simply arise from the confluence of no mask wearing, winter, and less social distancing.

If places like New York are anything to go by, where about 2% of the population is infected, people absolutely start noticing it (though where cognitive dissonance is particularly high, it might require a higher infection rate).

As you can see below, Australia is nowhere near this level but a number of US States are gradually progressing toward it.

Given the spread in the USA has slowed due to a combination of social distancing measures and summer weather, my base case is that most hospital systems do not reach a distressed state until colder weather returns, perhaps around November, 2020.

Sign up to our infrequent newsletter to get ideas and entertainment Fresh and Fast to your inbox!