In recent weeks Trump’s mental deterioration has become more palpable. He appears deranged and desperate, even losing his gift of appearing to believe his constant stream of off-the-cuff bluffs and inventions.
Trump posts as if his posts had legislative force. He claims that Iran has already gone through regime change.
The President’s slipping connection to reality makes ceasefire negotiations a bizarre prospect. The negotiations are due to commence in Islamabad, Pakistan on Saturday.
One positive is that the negotiations will not involve Trump directly. Vice-President JD Vance is attending as the lead US representative.
Yet it’s difficult to imagine Vance agreeing to anything without Trump’s blessing. Trump, in turn, does not even appear to know what is being negotiated.
Based on his posts, Trump sees his 15-point list of demands as the basis for peace negotiations. Yet Iran has its own 10-point list.
Trump was initially reported as calling the 10-point list “workable”. After CNN published the 10 points, Trump exploded in online anger, threatening prosecution of CNN for its supposedly fake report.
Iran is not without its own hubris. Despite the massive death and destruction suffered by its people, the government statement reads, “Iran has achieved a massive victory and forced criminal America to accept its 10-point plan.”
So what are Iran’s 10 points?
“In this plan,” Iran claims, “America is fundamentally committed to guaranteeing non-aggression, the continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, the acceptance of enrichment, the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, the termination of all resolutions of the Security Council and the Board of Governors, the payment of Iran’s damages, the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region, and the cessation of war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon.”
There is simply no way the US can pivot from claiming victory to accepting these points. Withdrawal of armed forces from the Middle East is especially unlikely, as is Israel accepting Iranian nuclear enrichment.
Meanwhile, Iran has little room to concede, given its claims of total victory. It has already said the continuation of the ceasefire is “unreasonable” given Trump’s rejection of Iranian nuclear enrichment in his public statements.
Without waiting for a final deal, Iran is already exerting control of Straits of Hormuz traffic, saying that tankers can be inspected by its armed forces and allowed to continue through the straits after a payment in Bitcoin. The US, for its part, has demanded free navigation of the straits.
Transit of the straits remains at a near standstill. Yesterday Ireland deployed the army to break up protests over fuel costs.
So a lasting deal seems impossible in this round of negotiations.
The key moving forward? “They [the Iranians] have a high threshold of pain that the US cannot match,” said Prof. Andres Kreig of Kings College London.
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