Pauline Hanson is the most popular political leader in Australia. Polling this week shows One Nation has 31% of the primary vote and the Labor Party 28%.
The challenge for One Nation is that they will sweep the field in regional Australia. While their vote has pushed past the ALP in total, it is more concentrated.
This is reflected in the fact that 80% of One Nation’s growth has come from the Liberal-National Coalition. There is just 20% of its vote coming from former Labor voters.
So in Queensland, One Nation has completely removed the LNP from the equation, at least on this week’s polling. One Nation will take almost the entire state, except Brisbane seats that are most likely to be won by the ALP.
So as things stand, the next election will be a contest between the ALP and One Nation. RedBridge is currently calling 45-60 lower-house seats for One Nation.
For reference, 76 seats wins government. And we are still two years from the next vote.
But can One Nation actually win?
The corollary of One Nation’s concentration in the region is an actively anti-One Nation bloc in the major metropolitan cities. This isn’t just Greens and Labor voters.
About a third of committed Liberal voters will actively vote against One Nation. As you head towards the centre of major cities, that proportion heads towards about 50%. These people will vote Independent or even Labor in order to stop One Nation.
So there is a ceiling. There is still a centre in the Australian political constituency and for now it’s strongly anti-Hanson.
The other challenge for One Nation winning government is that Pauline cannot campaign for prime minister from the Senate. She would need to campaign for a local member seat in the lower house.
Having just turned 70 years of age, that may not appeal to her. But they are plenty of seats that would happily have her representing them.
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