Some online commentators and analysts have recently argued that a US attack on Iran is imminent. Why?
The massive anti-government protests in Iran no doubt raised the hopes of the US administration for regime change. However, officially the tension relates to the Iranian nuclear program. Recent talks have been held between US and Iranian officials in Switzerland and Oman.
Trump has spoken of the “necessity of halting uranium enrichment in Iran.” On 19 February he issued an ultimatum that a deal be finalised within 10 days.
But Iran’s foreign minister told US media, “Washington did not ask Tehran to permanently abandon uranium enrichment.”
In the meantime, a massive US military build-up in the Middle East is underway.
The BBC has reported “a notable increase in US Air Force activity in Europe and the Middle East.” It also confirmed social media reports of an aircraft carrier (the Ford) en route through Gibraltar to the eastern Mediterranean.
For reference, the US Navy has seven carrier groups. Three are at the continental United States (Atlantic, Pacific and Caribbean) and two in the west Pacific. Soon, there will be one south-east of Iran and one to its west.
Military analysts are especially focused on the E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) radar planes, reportedly essential for large-scale operations. Of the 16 such planes the US Air Force has, six are currently stationed in Europe and the Middle East.
On the other side of the equation, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has reportedly blocked the US Air Force from using two British bases that would be key to an attack on Iran, as reported by The Times.
Earlier this month, Turkey’s foreign minister claimed air strikes would not precipitate regime change in the country. “I don’t want to speculate on certain scenarios in Iran,” said the minister, “But the regime won’t change through an airstrike or anything else. That’s a pipedream.”
Polymarket is perversely taking bets on the possibility of a US strike. Its odds currently are 1 in 3 within the next fortnight and a 60% chance before the end of March.
In January, Japan recommended all its citizens in Iran evacuate the country, and it also withdrew some embassy staff. That was at the time of the anti-government protests.
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