US Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last week has sparked an escalation in tensions with China. In retaliation, Beijing has conducted extensive live-fire military drills in the Taiwan Strait, and withdrawn cooperation with the US on a number of key issues. But concerns over the future of China’s aggression towards the island have been on the rise for some months, against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine gives Beijing an example to observe – a precedent for sanctions and military aid that may follow in the event they choose to take Taiwan by force. Of course, America has greater legal basis for actively participating in the defence of Taiwan if this happens; President Biden has suggested several times the US would step in if China attacks the island.
Nonetheless, the Ukrainian example is undoubtedly useful for Beijing to adjust its hypothetical strategies around seizing Taiwan.
Many Taiwanese are worried Beijing will take advantage of the Ukrainian crisis by making more aggressive moves while the West is distracted. When Russia first invaded back in March, Taiwan’s Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-Cheng stated the government was considering extending mandatory military service beyond the current four months.
Among ordinary Taiwanese, increased anxiety over the possibility Xi would follow in Putin’s footsteps has led to a jump in shooting lessons. While Taiwan has strict gun laws, shooting with airsoft guns is a popular competition sport. Bookings for shooting lessons have almost quadrupled since the start of the Ukrainian war.
“The Ukraine-Russia war has made the threat from across the Strait real,” Chang Yu, a tour guide, told Reuters. “It made us think how we should prepare ourselves if that happens in Taiwan.”
Learning from Ukraine
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) clearly dwarfs Taiwan’s military. Experts place their hopes in superior weapons and strategy, backed by US supply. The Biden administration has actively been trying to reshape Taiwanese weaponry orders to better suit an all-out conflict with China.
Letters obtained by POLITICO show the US rebuffing requests for big-ticket weapons, such as expensive helicopters, urging Taipei to learn from Ukraine. Officials responding to Taiwanese requests advised Taipei to invest in more “cost efficient” equipment, like drone swarms, short-range air defence, and Javelin anti-tank missiles. Such weaponry is less vulnerable to advanced Chinese weapons.
Tensions between Taiwan and China have reached boiling point before. In October last year, Beijing sent dozens of planes into Taiwan’s ADIZ around its national day. So many shrugged the latest retaliation threats off as just another instance of crying wolf.
But the response has been exceptionally aggressive this time around. China’s live-fire exercises are the largest ever conducted in the Taiwan Strait, and were unprecedented in their proximity to the island.
Beijing has withdrawn from cooperation with the US on climate change, cross-border crime, repatriation of illegal immigrants, and high-level military talks. Chinese hackers have targeted official Taiwanese websites and even screens at train stations and in 7-Elevens to condemn the US speaker’s visit.
The Kremlin has stood behind Beijing in its condemnation of Pelosi’s visit. “Everything about this tour and the possible visit to Taiwan is purely provocative,” said a Kremlin spokesperson before Pelosi’s arrival on the island. Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry, called the US a “state provocateur.”
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