The bombing of Iran was initially very popular in Israel. In mid-March, 81% of Israelis and 92% of Israeli Jews supported the bombing.
Partly this reflects the fact they view Hamas as an Iranian proxy. Partial blame for the October 2023 attack falls to Iran.
But it also reflects the fact that Israel has become an ever-more militarised society.
Serving in the armed forces is a formative experience for most Israelis. Aptitude testing can begin at 16 and after turning 18, men must serve for 32 months. Women are required to serve for 24 months, though they have readier access to exemption on religious grounds.
There is also strict military censorship in Israel. Controversially, this includes limiting reporting on the impact of enemy drone and missile strikes inside the country.
Even though the US and Israel had failed to force concessions from the Iranian regime, the ceasefire was unpopular in Israel. The MOU itself, which recognises a strengthened Iran, is tremendously unpopular, with 90% opposition to it on one poll.
If Israel decides the deal is acceptable, it can systematically undermine the MOU by refusing to withdraw its occupation of southern Lebanon.
But if the MOU goes ahead anyway, the most dire prospect is that Israel decides to use nuclear weapons against Iran. After all, Israel could not achieve its goals in Iran by conventional military means, and many Israelis view the Islamic Republic as an existential threat.
Would an Israeli government seriously countenance using nuclear weapons? We do know that the Israeli public is only slightly opposed to doing so overall.
A 2021 research paper prompted Israeli participants to read a hypothetical news article titled, “Iran Now Capable of Targeting Israel with Nuclear Weapon”. Participants had to then express approval, neutrality or disapproval of responding by nuking Iran.
On the basis of this study, a third of Israelis would support using a nuclear weapon in that scenario. A further 15% – taking the total to almost half – said they would not necessarily agree or disagree with doing so.
We might speculate that approval would be even higher now, after the trauma of October 2023 and the desensitisation to violence resulting from the attacks on Gaza.
This all adds up to the situation in the Middle East being truly dangerous for the entire world. That shouldn’t be forgotten amidst all the talk about the Straits of Hormuz and the price of oil.
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