“Zero Probability LNP Wins More Seats than Labor”: Poll

There is “essentially zero probability at this stage that the Liberal-National Coalition will win more seats than Labor” in the 2025 federal election. That’s according to political analyst Kos Samaras based on polling conducted by Accent Research and RedBridge Group.

The pollsters are split as to whether Albanese will continue to govern with a lower-house ALP majority, or whether the ALP will govern with independent and minor-party support.

Even so, the real headline was the continuing record support for candidates who belong to neither Labor nor the LNP. Around a third of the electorate will not vote for a major party, as both parties continue to lose primary votes.

In the outer- and middle-suburbs, Labor’s primary vote is eroding in the wake of the referendum and housing unaffordability. At the same time, though, the gentrifying inner metropolitan areas continue to drift away from the LNP.

“The trend from 2022 continues, with many wealthier and more highly educated areas increasingly leaning to the Left, while poorer areas are opting for independents and non-institutional players,” observed Samaras. “Labor is losing support in the outer suburbs of major cities, but the Liberal Party has been unable to capitalise on this discontent.”

Currently sitting teals look set to be re-elected, with a further independent gain tipped in Port Macquarie, NSW. These members will ultimately back an Albanese prime ministership.

Labor is also likely to win back Fowler, after its failed experiment with Kristina Keneally, and may win back the seat of Brisbane from the Greens. This latter prediction is based on data showing a shift away from the Greens and towards Labor on the part of older millennials.

It should be noted that this polling began in February. So it will not take voter shifts based on recent debates over immigration into account.

In the long-run, it appears there are two paths to an LNP return. One is liberalising their position in the culture war. The other is sweeping all the outer suburbs and regions during a hypothetical period of economic carnage.

For now, if the pollsters are correct for 2025, then there is good money to be made on the betting markets. Major bookmakers are still offering $1.50 on a Labor re-election versus $2.50 on a Peter Dutton prime ministership.

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