Investing in unprofitable businesses is inherently much more dangerous because when a company loses money, it makes an enemy of time itself. In comparison, a profitable company can survive endlessly, giving it the chance to take continuous shots on goal. That said, I don’t mind the occasional investment in an unprofitable business, as long as I consider it probable that the business will become profitable in the next few years.
Prior to the recent Asset Vision (ASX: ASV) FY 2025 results, I purchased a small holding in order to incentivise myself to follow the company closely. Fortunately, the process worked and – despite a considerable backlog of articles waiting for publication – I couldn’t help have a quick look at the report and jot down some thoughts. [In fact, I had intended to publish this a couple of hours ago, but accidentally delayed.]
I thought I would share my thoughts here so I can track how this risky and unprofitable investment develops over time (and also to hold myself to account if the stock does NOT become profitable in the next few years from now).
Asset Vision Has A Scalable Business Model
Asset Vision is asset management software that allows customers to “proactively maintain infrastructure, plan for future investment needs, and deliver more cost-efficient services.” Check out their video below to get a vague idea what I’m talking about.
Obviously, Asset Vision is a subscale software company with FY 2025 revenue of $5m and a loss of $385k. It recorded a 28% rise in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) to $4.4 million in June 2025. According to management commentary, Q1 FY 2025 ARR growth is off to a good start and we should see $4.8m by the end of September.
At the current share price of 4.8 cents per share Asset Vision has a market capitalisation of $36m, which is about 8x ARR. It doesn’t look cheap on current multiples but that is not the point of the thesis. The investment thesis for me right now is extremely simple: Asset Vision will share price will go up if it achieves and maintains statutory profitability without having to raise more capital.
That is far from certain, because it only has $1.5m in cash and lost almost $400k in the last year. That said, it could be achievable with careful management and if this can be achieved, it would be a strong indication that the leaders wish to minimise dilution and thus priortise shareholder returns over empire building.
Whether or not Asset Vision is cheap will depend on how well the company is run and the manner in which the Co-CEOs treat minority shareholders. In the long term, high-integrity management teams end up fetching higher multiples of earnings, all else being equal. So too do consistently profitable companies.
If performance over the next few years is strong, then we could see the Asset Vision share price reflect a growing profitable company with high integrity management. That leaves plenty of upside in this positive scenario, but I have not followed the stock for long enough to have a good guess at the probabilities.
Asset Vision Is Under The Radar
Asset Vision’s YouTube channel’s most popular video has 82 views at the time of writing, and I can’t find any posts about it on the carcass of Twitter that now exists (thanks Elon).
On Hotcrapper, the FY 2025 results attracted only a few micro-cap fellow travellers exchanging succinct observations and a conspicuous lack of low-integrity pumpers.
Unfortunately, Asset Vision did not hold a public webinar for shareholders (and potential shareholders) at the time of the FY 2025 results.
However, this may change in the future, because when I queried the co-CEO Lucas Murtagh about the lack of a basic results webinar, he said: “public webinars are something we’ll be doing more of in FY26. We’ve got a great story to tell and we’re keen to share that story more and more with existing shareholders.”
As a general rule, it is usually a positive when a small-cap CEO is willing to cheerfully take on board the nudges I tend to give about treating shareholders with integrity, so this is a positive heuristic for me.
For example, long-term Supporters might recall my constant suggestions to Dropsuite CEO Charif El-Ansari about how to run his business. Obviously, I never knew how much if at all my suggestions influenced him, and he would just say things like “Will keep this in mind going forward.”
And I was happy with that, because when they did ignore my suggestions they provided reasons. On top of that, they held regular webinars for all shareholders to quiz management, avoided overhyping its stock, and rightly refrained from giving guidance, and maintained statutory profitability once it was achieved.
All these signals of high integrity of the leadership gave me the confidence to consistently back Dropsuite, and eventually we were all rewarded together with a very decent takeover offer.
With the tough job of cleaning up the messy backdoor listing of Asset Vision now behind them, the Co-CEOs have a chance to shepherd the company towards profitability (and sustainability) and start building its reputation with potential investors in a major way. If they tread a path like Dropsuite, then they will only gain credibility in the eyes of the market.
I may not know enough about Asset Vision to make a sound judgment of the stock today, but I sure do think the stock is a well-kept secret. I do agree with the co-CEO of Asset Vision Lucas Murtagh, that they do have a great story to tell, and as a shareholder, I look forward to hearing more about it.
Disclosure: The author of this article owns shares ASV and will not trade those shares for at least 2 days following the publication of this article. This article is not intended to form the basis of an investment decision and is not a recommendation. Any statements that are advice under the law are general advice only. The author has not considered your investment objectives or personal situation. Any advice is authorised by Claude Walker (AR 1297632), Authorised Representative of Ethical Investment Advisers Pty Ltd (ABN 26108175819) (AFSL 276544).
The information contained in this report is not intended as and shall not be understood or construed as personal financial product advice. You should consider whether the advice is suitable for you and your personal circumstances. Before you make any decision about whether to acquire a certain product, you should obtain and read the relevant product disclosure statement. Nothing in this report should be understood as a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial products. A Rich Life does not warrant or represent that the information, opinions or conclusions contained in this report are accurate, reliable, complete or current. Future results may materially vary from such opinions, forecasts, projections or forward looking statements. You should be aware that any references to past performance does not indicate or guarantee future performance.