When I first wrote about Catapult’s turnaround story on May 7th, the company’s market capitalization was AUD $393 million. At that time, I noted that the FY24 results could serve as an immediate catalyst for its valuation. By the time I revisited the company’s story in an article on May 30th, discussing its FY24 results, Catapult’s market capitalization had grown to AUD $445 million.
Fast forward to today, with the release of the 1H FY25 results, Catapult’s share price has risen to $3.38, bringing its market capitalization to approximately AUD $911 million.
This growth raises an important question: Was it mispriced then or now?
Several factors have contributed to this rapid rise in Catapult’s valuation:
- Execution of Strategy:
The company has started delivering on the strategy it outlined two years ago, earning the trust of shareholders. - Index Inclusion:
Catapult was added to the ASX Tech Index, increasing its visibility and attractiveness to institutional investors. - Positive Free Cash Flow:
Achieving free cash flow positivity is a significant milestone, marking an inflection point in the company’s financial trajectory. - Operating Leverage:
Catapult demonstrated strong operating leverage in 2H FY24 and 1H FY25, showcasing its ability to scale profitably.
These achievements have raised market expectations significantly. However, for shareholders to be rewarded going forward, Catapult must continue meeting or exceeding these expectations at a fundamental level.
So with that background let’s analyze its 1st Half FY25 result
Catapult H1 FY 2025 Revenue Growth
As shown in the graph below, revenue has increased to US$57.8 million from US$49.75 million at the end of 1H FY24, representing a 19% year-over-year growth, which is impressive.
While I don’t usually place too much emphasis on Annualized Contract Value (ACV), it remains a key leading indicator of future revenue. ACV has grown 20% year-over-year to US$96.8 million, marking the largest increase in any half-year period—a promising sign for future revenue growth.
And if we delve deeper into the segment contributions, then we see that the core SaaS verticals of performance & health and tactics & coaching (92% of total revenue) are contributing most significantly to the revenue growth.
Catapult’s Balance Sheet strength
At the end of FY24, Catapult’s cash balance was roughly US$11.6m in cash and US$11m in debt. After 1H FY25, the cash balance is US$9.7m, and the company repaid US$6m on its debt facility, reducing the existing debt balance to US$5 million.
Until last year, there were concerns about whether Catapult would need to raise capital.
However, over the past year, the company has demonstrated its ability to sustain itself financially and CEO’s comment on conference call gave me confidence when he responded to one of the questions noting the company is looking to repay its remaining debt as a priority.
I like debt-free companies and prefer a net cash balance sheet because of the optionality and downside protection it gives the company.
Catapult’s H1 FY 2025 Profit
While Catapult has not yet achieved profitability, the 1H FY25 results indicate progress toward this goal. The company generated positive earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), but its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) is still negative, albeit improving.
Catapult’s Free Cashflow
Catapult’s 1H FY25 financial results reveal the company has extended its free cashflow generation ability from FY24 results. However, please note the cash flow is typically stronger in the first half.
The chart below shows the free cash flow (I have calculated free cashflow as Net increase/decrease in cash and adjust for loan drawdown/repayment and cash received for share issues – but I haven’t factored in the impact of Employee share-based payment expense for this graph). According to my calculation free cash flow comes at around US$ 3.1 for 1H FY25.
Operating Leverage
When I wrote article discussing FY24 results, I noted the following:
“Looking ahead, there are two key areas to keep an eye on that management highlighted in their presentation:
- Profit Margin as a Percentage of Revenue: The long-term target is 30%, as illustrated in the graph below.
- Incremental Profit: In FY24, Catapult saw $6.2 million of incremental profit from $14.4 million of increased revenue, equating to a 43% margin.
These aspects will be crucial in assessing Catapult’s ongoing financial health and strategic execution.”
On both fronts, It is actually doing better than I had expected.
In the last 12 months, Catapult increased its revenue by US$8.1m, and out of that US$8.1m, US$6m fell to its bottom line. Its fixed cost was actually reduced by US$0.3, and variable cost only increased by US$2.3m.
And it is progressing well towards its long-term target, as can be seen below.
Catapult International (ASX: CAT) Stock Valuation
Following the release of the 1H FY25 results, Catapult’s stock price rose to approximately AUD $3.38, reflecting the market’s confidence in the company’s strategic direction and financial health. This increase brings Catapult’s market capitalization to around AUD $911 million.
If we annualize the free cash flow generated in 1H FY25, the company is on track to deliver approximately AUD $8.65 million in free cash flow for FY25. At the current price, this represents less than a 1% yield (i.e., an investor pays AUD $865 million for a business that generates AUD $8.65 million in return).
The valuation ultimately depends on the growth potential investors expect in the future. In my view, Catapult’s free cash flow growth potential, combined with its potential inclusion in the ASX 300 index in the medium term, suggests it isn’t overly expensive at this stage.
Yes, there is execution risk, but the management has earned my trust that they can execute well, and I remain comfortable holding it at this point. That said, I no longer see the same value as when I first began covering it on these pixels.
Disclosure: The author of this article owns shares in CAT. The editor Claude Walker does not own shares in CAT. Neither will trade CAT shares for at least 2 days following the publication of this article. This article is not intended to form the basis of an investment decision and is not a recommendation. Any statements that are advice under the law are general advice only. The author has not considered your investment objectives or personal situation. Any advice is authorised by Claude Walker (AR 1297632), Authorised Representative of Ethical Investment Advisers Pty Ltd (ABN 26108175819) (AFSL 343937).